Adobe Predicts AI-Assisted Shopping to Surge 520% During 2025 Holiday Season

Adobe's latest forecast reveals a dramatic shift in online shopping behavior, with AI-powered shopping traffic expected to surge 520% year-over-year during the 2025 U.S. holiday season. This follows an already impressive 1,300% increase in AI traffic to retail sites during 2024, signaling mainstream adoption of artificial intelligence in consumer shopping habits.

The growth will be most pronounced in the 10 days leading up to Thanksgiving, with AI services primarily used for product research, recommendations, deal-finding, and gift inspiration. Based on Adobe's survey of 5,000 U.S. consumers, 53% plan to use AI for research purposes, while 40% will seek product recommendations and 36% will hunt for deals using AI-powered tools.

Adobe Analytics predicts U.S. online holiday sales will reach $253.4 billion from November 1 to December 31, 2025, representing 5.3% growth year-over-year. This forecast is based on analysis of over 1 trillion visits to U.S. retail sites, covering 100 million SKUs across 18 product categories.

Cyber Monday will remain the biggest shopping day at $14.2 billion (up 6.3%), while Black Friday is expected to outpace with 8.3% growth reaching $11.7 billion. A record 10 days will see consumers spend over $5 billion in a single day, compared to 7 days in 2024. Cyber Week alone will account for 17.2% of total holiday spending at $43.7 billion.

Mobile devices will achieve a record 56.1% share of online spending, representing $142.7 billion—a dramatic evolution from just 40% during the 2020 holiday season. This shift reflects the growing comfort consumers have with mobile shopping experiences and larger smartphone screens that facilitate easier browsing and purchasing.

Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) services will drive $20.2 billion in online spending, an 11% increase adding approximately $2 billion compared to 2024. BNPL usage on Cyber Monday alone is expected to cross the $1 billion milestone, with 79% of BNPL transactions occurring on mobile devices. This trend indicates consumers' desire for greater budget flexibility during the holiday shopping season.

Three categories will dominate holiday spending: electronics ($57.5 billion, up 4%), apparel ($47.6 billion, up 4.4%), and furniture ($31.1 billion, up 6.5%), together accounting for over half of all online spend. Smaller but fast-growing categories include groceries ($23.5 billion, up 9.2%) and cosmetics ($8.4 billion, up 9.1%).

Social media's influence on shopping will intensify, with social-driven revenue expected to rise 51% year-over-year—a significant acceleration from 2024's 5% growth. Consumers are increasingly discovering products through social platforms and influencers, reshaping the traditional customer journey. Competitive discounting will remain strong, with products expected to be 28% off listed prices, driving consumers to 'trade up' to higher-ticket items in categories like sporting goods and electronics.